Every runner we cover gets one number — our probability on it. Fair price is 1 ÷ that number: when a bookie pays over the fair price you are getting the value, and when they don't, we say so. Citi & Provincial-1 racing only — just the reads Rori would bet.
The KISS principle. No staking plans, no systems, no locks — one probability per horse, its fair price, and the discipline to only take the price that beats it.
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31 winners · 14 quinellas · 60% of reads in the frame on the day · prices are what each runner paid
Newcastle R717:04
Quinella ✓
8
Unreachable
60% place · Fair $1.66
$1.50
5
Sharp Shock
50% place · Fair $2.01
$19.40
Ran 1st & 2nd — and the winner paid $19.40. Sharp Shock was rated 50% and the sheet had it at $11.00 that morning; Unreachable filled the quinella behind it.
Randwick R615:20
Quinella ✓
7
Chix
49% place · Fair $2.05
$5.30
12
Regal Problem
42% place · Fair $2.36
$1.85
First and second again — Chix won at $5.30, $6.00 at publish. Regal Problem ran second: two reads, both in the frame.
Doomben R314:12
Quinella ✓
9
Thinkhardandfast
52% place · Fair $1.94
$5.20
6
Awaygoesthebunny
44% place · Fair $2.28
$1.70
A third quinella on the same card — Thinkhardandfast at $5.20 ($4.60 at publish), Awaygoesthebunny second. 14 of them landed on this day.
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Rori's Mail · every horse, one number · Citi & P1 only
Odds shown are indicative only. Data provided by Krok Odds. Fair Price is Rori's own calculation (1 ÷ model probability).
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